What an Attack on the Dollar Actually Looks Like — Crisis Investing 重點整理

Iran's yuan toll booth at Strait of Hormuz — structural attack on petrodollar

—Iran running yuan toll booth at Strait of Hormuz since mid-March, charging commercial tankers $0.50-$1.20/barrel settled in Chinese yuan via CIPS payment system. France, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand (all US treaty allies) reportedly paying. This is actual de-dollarization in real oil trade plumbing, not theoretical BRICS posturing — US allies paying Iran in CNY to move oil through a strait Trump tried to pry open by force without success

美元走勢 ↓看空中期

Iran war accelerating structural dollar decline. UAE central bank requesting currency swap line with US Treasury, implying alternative: settle oil in yuan if Washington won't backstop UAE dollar liquidity. Iran's Hormuz yuan toll forcing US allies to use CNY has done more damage to dollar in 2 months than a decade of BRICS headlines — this is real plumbing change, not posturing

地緣政治 ↓看空中期

Iran-China collaboration at Strait of Hormuz creating non-dollar payment infrastructure that US treaty allies are being forced to use. UAE exploring yuan settlement as Plan B if US won't provide dollar backstop during war's economic damage. Geopolitical fracture accelerating faster than expected — US losing ability to enforce dollar hegemony even among treaty allies

Dollar reserve share at 57% — lowest in ~30 years with worsening trajectory

—Latest IMF data: global central banks hold ~57% reserves in USD, ~20% EUR, ~6% JPY, ~5% GBP, ~3% CNY. Historical context: dollar share crashed 85% → 46% (1978-1991) after late-1970s US inflation; rebounded in 1990s; euro launch stopped gains; China's gradual yuan shift driving decline since. Dollar was losing altitude long before Iran war; trajectory set for continued decline, and 2026 reserve numbers likely to show meaningful deterioration after Hormuz yuan toll booth impact

美元走勢 ↓看空長期

57% dollar reserve share is lowest in nearly 3 decades. Structural decline from 85% (1978) to 46% (1991) post-inflation crisis, partial recovery in 1990s, then euro + China yuan shift driving continuous erosion. Iran war adding acute shock on top of chronic decline. Long-term trajectory set for further dollar degradation; 2026 numbers expected to show material worsening after Iran-China Hormuz mechanism forces real-world yuan usage by US allies